Tuesday, November 13. 2007Vapourware Bad For Business
A while back I wrote “Ship or Shut Up” mocking companies who hype products based on what they could be, rather than what they are. I got a stiff reminder of that this evening looking through the stock markets of the more interesting technology companies. I keep an eye on stock prices regularily now, mainly just to work out exactly how much money I would now have if I ever got off my ass and invested my meagre savings in Apple. (I’d have 134% of my savings if I did it when I first thought about it  View Full Size
To be fair to Google their stock price merely fell back to where it was before people bought into the notion that Google would move from Search and Adverts to hardware manufacturer and mobile operating system design. We can call the above effect "Vapourshares", the impact of Vapourware on Shares. I didn’t buy into this notion, not because of any great foresight, mainly cause I thought that Google don't need to build phones to sell ads, so why bother. I should state that I am very surprised by the Googles handling of the whole situation. Why announce an invisible product that customer won’t see for months? Even when it is launched they won't really understand it, I’ve had a hard time explaining it to people. The smart ones keep asking “Doesn’t Java already do that? ”. Also, why say anything on the 6th if the SDK was just a week away? Finally, could they not find one decent phone manufacturer to buy into this? Granted I live in Ireland, so the majority of the phones I see are Nokia and Sony Ericsson. Maybe HTC, LG, Motorola and Samsung have it wrapped up in other countries. Motorola did make a huge impact with the Razr, but for reasons well known, they'll struggle to keep their share. Everyone I know is looking at Blackberrys, iPhones or the new Nokias as the “phones of desire”, I'm not sure where Android fits in. Still it’ll be interesting to find out. If you're involved in technology for whatever reasons, it's always interesting to keep an eye on whats happening with certain companies. Look at the one year plots and compare competitors. AAPL is probably most interesting to watch as you can see the rumours, and you can see the realities. Rumours (e.g. Tablet Portable 12" Mac) look something like a chart above, realities (e.g. iPhone) result in a sharp permanent spike). Also worth watching is the impact of the Google SDK, if it's any good will it affect the bottom line? Early signs say yes.
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Another vintage article, Des.
Here's a question, should companies like the "G" nip any rumours in the bud, or is it in their best interest to have a temporary spike in share price? Lar
"Apple (AAPL) - They felt iPod was under appreciated, so they released the Zune"
You mean the iPhone?? Zune is MS's ipod clone
I think that you meant that Apple made the iPhone instead of the Zune (that is Microsoft).
Sarcasm? If you've ever used a zune then you'll really apprechiate the ipod.
Guys, that was a joke!
I am well aware that the Zune is a Microsoft product. I was implying that the Zune is soo bad it actually helped iPod sales (and hence maybe Apple were behind it). I'll be sure to add smilies next time
The main question that comes to mind is this:
Are Google really, really fucking shit at marketing, but generally get away with it because: a) their products / services are pretty good and b) most of their efforts seem to follow the "do no evil" approach? My perception of Google is as a massive, global corporation, acting as a cool, small, private company. Take their video for Android: half of me likes that it looks like it was shot by Sergey's secretary, but the other half thinks: "big brands across the world have put their necks on the line for this and big Google shareholders are loosing sleep over this and the rest of the globe is waiting to see the gPhone, so put a bit of effort in, lads!" The few Googlers I've got to ask directly have told me that Google outsource very little; maybe there's now too much at stake to try manage the marketing themselves? I think they need to grow-up and control their reputation. I think they need to heed the story about the boy that cried wolf. The first word I hear about the gCar, I'm selling my GOOG!
You have GOOG?
Looks like it's not your month so  Incidentally Apple are working with VW on a next gen dashboard (if you believe everything you read) |
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This website is the online diary of me, Des Traynor, a User Experience Researcher in Dublin, Ireland. I work with Contrast. I usually write on 5 topics: I update about 3-4 times per month. Be sure to subscribe so you don't miss this good stuff. If this is your first time here, check out the archives.My official homepage provides more information about who I am, and what I research. You can contact me at destraynor [at] gmail [dot] com Quicksearch |
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